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Can China's manufacturing rebound be sustained?
Add Time: 2022-05-26   |   Hits:0

China's manufacturing sector added value as a share of GDP in the first quarter reached its highest level since 2016. In the face of many uncertainties, China is taking multiple measures to stabilize its industrial and supply chains, promote steady growth of the industrial economy, and keep the manufacturing sector's share of the economy stable.

Before 2021, The share of China's manufacturing industry has experienced a decline for many years. In 2011, the share of China's manufacturing industry was 32.06 percent, but in 2020, it has dropped to 26.18 percent. By 2021, the proportion of manufacturing will return to positive growth, reaching 27.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year.

Manufacturing is the foundation of building a country and building a strong country. Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed the need to keep manufacturing's share stable. The "14th Five-Year Plan" further put forward the "in-depth implementation of the manufacturing strategy", and stressed for the first time "to keep the proportion of manufacturing basically stable".

Liu Xu, senior vice president of Zhongcheng Think Tank, said in an interview that the historical practice of economic development in various countries around the world proves that manufacturing is the key for a country to seize the commanding heights of international competition strategy and is an important field for maintaining domestic economic stability, creating jobs and driving growth.

The experience of developed countries shows that the decline in the share of manufacturing, including the share of employees, is an inevitable result of economic development and industrialization. But compared with developed manufacturing countries, Li Yizhong, former minister of industry and Information Technology, once said that the decline of China's manufacturing share is too early and too fast.

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the importance of manufacturing became prominent again. Developed countries in Europe and the United States accelerated the implementation of "reindustrialization" strategy, China proposed the strategy of "Manufacturing Power", and emerging economies accelerated the building of a new "world factory".

Against this backdrop, the proportion of China's manufacturing sector in the first quarter of this year kept rising. Han Jianfei, deputy director of the Institute of Industrial Economics at CCID Think Tank, believes that on the one hand, the "dynamic zero-out" epidemic prevention and control policy and the policy of steady economic growth have laid a foundation for the sustained and sound development of the manufacturing industry, and investment and export play an obvious driving role in the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector has been less affected by COVID-19 than the service sector.

Liu xu believes that in recent years, China has adopted key technological breakthroughs, support for specialized new enterprises and other scientific and technological innovation policies have gradually emerged, especially in high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, industrial competitiveness and market space has gradually improved. In addition, tourism and other service industries are heavily affected by the epidemic, with their share declining.

However, uncertainties are growing at home and abroad. In March, due to the spread of COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts, some indicators of the industrial economy slowed down significantly, and the downward pressure was further increased.

As of March 21, for example, China's daily average vehicle freight flow index rose 2.6% year on year in March, down sharply from 6.2% growth in February. Xin Guobin, vice-minister of industry and information Technology, told a conference at the weekend that the suspension of production by one company in industries such as automotive equipment and electronics in the Yangtze River Delta could affect a large number of companies in the industrial and supply chains.

In general, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released four batches of "white lists" of key industrial and supply chains, with a total of more than 2,000 enterprises. For the rising prices of raw materials, the authorities cracked down on hoarding and price gouging; There have also been a series of official bail-outs for small and medium-sized enterprises.

In the longer term, Han jianfei believes that new energy vehicles, new materials and other emerging industries are the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, which should be stabilized as the "basic disk"; We will accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industrial clusters such as new-generation information technology, new-energy vehicles and high-end equipment. We will further expand consumption in key areas such as new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, and increase the contribution of domestic demand to manufacturing growth.

Liu said regional coordination should be promoted, opening wider to the outside world, realizing efficient coordination of industrial chains, accelerating the construction of a domestic cycle, reducing manufacturing costs and improving production efficiency. Strengthen international cooperation, further expand foreign markets, and bring into play the supporting role of foreign demand in manufacturing.


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